BAKIT HINDI AKO NANINIWALA SA PULSE ASIA SURVEY?
I once told a friend who's a BBM-supporter that surveys aren't 100% accurate. Niyabangan ba naman agad ako na kesyo nagwo-work siya sa radio and 100% reliable and surveys kasi they're using it sa pag-promote ng products thru commercials, to check yung rankings nila with competitors, etc.
Then I stopped and did not reply anymore coz na-feel ko na he's combative and ramdam ko na hindi pa rin niya tatanggapin ang explanation ko lalo na pag ginamitan ko na siya ng mga mathematical terms and formulas. Char! Pero hindi ito isang Valentine Rosales na kwentong barbero ha. I can share the screenshot of our convo if need nyo ng resibo. haha
Why I don't believe in the Pulse Asia Survey with regards to the Presidential and Vice Presidential rankings:
1. With 65.7M registered voters, a mere 1,200 respondents, sobrang konti ng sample to represent the possible answer of the entire population. That's only 0.0018% of the total population. Hindi nga nag-1%.
2. Secondly, as admitted by Pulse Asia Survey, they excluded Class A&B from the sample. It means, di kassala yung mga nakatira sa exclusive subdivision or yung mga nakakaluwag-luwag sa buhay. Dito pa lang, alam mo ng gusto nila mag-skew yung result ng survey.
Headstart: Pulse Asia Research Director breaks down latest presidential survey results | ANC
3. There is a possibility that a majority of the sample ay galing sa balwarte ng preferred nilang candidate. Example, most of the respondents are from the North or Davao. It can definitely affect the results of the survey. Baka wala silang sinamang sample from Bicol or in the Visayas where VP Leni is leading.
4. Age can also be a factor. Most of VP Leni's supporters (evident din naman during rallies) are the youth. How many young people were included in the survey?
6. What if unintentionally and coincidentally, lahat or majority ng nasama sa sample are BBM supporters? It can also greatly affect the results.
7. Pwede din naman binayaran yung survey firm to manipulate the results (hypothetical lang po eto ha pero possible).
There are many other factors that can contribute why surveys aren't 100% accurate. Look at Mayor Vico and VP Leni during 2016 Election. The tides were turned into their favors. Kahit si Xian Gaza, ang Pambansang Marites did not agree about the Pulse Asia Survey when he had a discussion with Ka Tunying.
XIAN GAZA, may banat sa survey na panalo si BBM! KA TUNYING, NA-AWKWARD?!
P.S. Don't bring up the tell-tale na kesyo dinaya si BBM last 2016 election. Again, naka-3 recounts po at inakyat pa sa Supreme Court for finality. 15-0 ang votes in favor for VP Leni. If kung may daya ang machines, same machine lang din naman ang ginamit for President Duterte why he won.
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